2011年8月14日星期日

Mideast Scholar: Chances of Mideast Peace 'Slim' for Now

The second problem is the absence or lack of American credibility. I mean, these days, over the last several years, it seems that everybody says "no" to the United States without much cost and without much consequence, and a mediator really - an effective mediator - needs "street credibility," needs the respect and even the fear, at some point, of the powers with which it deals.

Miller: That's true, but direct talks, frankly, are of limited utility. If you went back and looked at the record of American mediation over the last 40 years, what you'd find is that our successes - and there have only been three: Kissinger's disengagement diplomacy in the '70s, Jimmy Carter's Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, Jim Baker's efforts to put together a Madrid Peace Conference - these all came as a consequence not of direct negotiations, but of U.S. mediation - indirect talks.

, Public Policy Scholar at the Washington D.C.-based Woodrow Wilson Center for Public Policy, is a former State Department analyst and negotiator and the author of The Much Too Promised Land: America's Elusive Search for Arab-Israeli Peace. He told VOA reporter Cecily Hilleary that no matter what strategy the U.S. will attempt in coming months, the chances of "quick and easy progress" remain slim.





The failure of the latest round of Middle East talks has left politicians and analysts grappling over whether a peace agreement achievable in the near future. U.S. negotiator George Mitchell met separately with Israeli and Palestinian leaders this past week, saying the US remained committed to pursuing substantive talks.

So, the issue is not direct or indirect. The issue is whether or not the parties, the Israelis and the Palestinians, Benjamin Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas, are prepared to make the kinds of choices that narrow the gaps sufficiently on the four core issues, which would allow a determined and smart American mediator to bridge those gaps.






17 December 2010

Photo: AP
US Mideast envoy George Mitchell leaves following his meeting about Mideast peace talks with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit, not pictured, in Cairo, Egypt, Oct 3, 2010

Hilleary: From the Palestinian perspective, though, that was the condition for resuming direct talks.

The answer to the second question on the issue of U.S. mediation is a question mark.

And in the meantime, the Israelis will continue to pursue their settlement policies, and the Palestinians are involved in another major distraction, which is the effort to create the basis for what might be – although it's highly inadvisable - a unilateral declaration of Palestinian statehood.

And the answer to the first question so far, after 20 months, is "No, they're not."




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